Tools · Deal Odds: how likely is this deal to close? · Free, no sign-up
Deal Odds: how likely is this deal to close?
Tick what is true about one deal today: buyer access, pain, timing, process, competition and budget. You get a Brew Strength estimate, the biggest gap, and the exact line to say on your next call. Every weight is shown.
Score: 0%Deal Odds: how likely is this deal to close?
Result…
sellsip.com · Keep the receipt
The method, in full
This is a weighted checklist, not a statistical model. Each signal comes from a well-known qualification framework, and the weights (which add up to 100) are SellSip's editorial judgement of how much each one usually matters in a B2B deal. The total maps to our Brew Strength scale: 80+ Strong Brew, 60 to 80 Good Blend, 40 to 60 Needs Stirring, 20 to 40 Weak Brew, under 20 Decaf.
- Economic buyer (14), metrics/pain (14), champion (12), decision and paper process (10): MEDDPICC and Gap Selling.
- Critical event (10): SPICED.
- Competition, including doing nothing (6): MEDDPICC's Competition letter and JOLT, from Dixon and McKenna's analysis of 2.5 million sales calls, which found indecision loses many deals.
- Budget confirmed (4): the B in BANT. It carries a lighter weight by our editorial judgement: in complex deals an engaged economic buyer with a quantified problem can often find budget.
- Three or more contacts (8): multi-threading, from Gong's deal data.
- Recent buyer action (12), dated next step (10): engagement signals and the SellSip forecasting rule: no buyer action in two weeks, no commit.
Use it to find the next question to ask, not to replace your forecast. Calibrate it against your own win rates over time. Background: Frameworks Radar 2026.
Questions people ask
How do you know if a sales deal will close?
Look for evidence the buyer is acting, not just talking: an engaged economic buyer, a quantified problem, a champion, a dated next step, a known decision process and a real deadline. The more of these are true, the stronger the deal.
Is the percentage a real probability?
No. It is a transparent readiness estimate on the Brew Strength scale, built from editorial weights. Compare it with your own historical win rates before using it in a forecast.
Which framework is this based on?
Mainly MEDDPICC, with signals from Gap Selling, SPICED, JOLT, BANT and multi-threading research.
Can I share my result?
Yes. Copy the result link to send a teammate or manager the same ticked boxes and score, or save the receipt as an image for Slack, Teams or WhatsApp. The link holds only the boxes you ticked and the deal name you typed.